Planning For An Uncertain Future: The case for Modeling Variability in Forecasting

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June 15, 2017

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This webinar is for Americas timezones. Click here for Europe.

There is a renewed interest in the impact of uncertainty as the biopharmaceutical industry scrambles to evaluate the impact of the Brexit and Affordable Healthcare Act changes on product portfolios. Most industry forecasts today include only limited assessments of variability, through such metrics as ‘probability of technical success’. Relatively limited work has been placed against incorporating variability ranges, with many companies struggling to analyze even one set of ‘baseline’ numbers; let alone a wide range of future possibilities.

In this webinar, we’ll outline how QuintilesIMS’ Forecasting Platform can be used to perform many different types of variability analysis. We’ll look at the tradeoffs between traditional scenario-based planning – where planners have a number of self-contained plans that aggregate various contingencies – and more sophisticated Monte-Carlo and event-driven variability models. We’ll look at industry best practices for developing models with variability that incorporate relatively high likelihood events of various impacts, as well as ‘black swans’ – events with a low likelihood. Finally, we’ll demonstrate simple ways of visualizing these outputs and which key variables drive most of the impact of variability.


Rick Johnston, Ph.D.
Senior Enterprise Software Lead

David Wolter
Vice President

Sam Keating
Senior Principal