menu
event

Planning For An Uncertain Future: The case for Modeling Variability in Forecasting

Register now

June 15, 2017

Register Save to Calendar

 

Summary

This webinar is for Americas timezones. Click here for Europe.

There is a renewed interest in the impact of uncertainty as the biopharmaceutical industry scrambles to evaluate the impact of the Brexit and Affordable Healthcare Act changes on product portfolios. Most industry forecasts today include only limited assessments of variability, through such metrics as ‘probability of technical success’. Relatively limited work has been placed against incorporating variability ranges, with many companies struggling to analyze even one set of ‘baseline’ numbers; let alone a wide range of future possibilities.

In this webinar, we’ll outline how QuintilesIMS’ Forecasting Platform can be used to perform many different types of variability analysis. We’ll look at the tradeoffs between traditional scenario-based planning – where planners have a number of self-contained plans that aggregate various contingencies – and more sophisticated Monte-Carlo and event-driven variability models. We’ll look at industry best practices for developing models with variability that incorporate relatively high likelihood events of various impacts, as well as ‘black swans’ – events with a low likelihood. Finally, we’ll demonstrate simple ways of visualizing these outputs and which key variables drive most of the impact of variability.

Speakers

Rick Johnston, Ph.D.
Senior Enterprise Software Lead
QuintilesIMS

David Wolter
Vice President
QuintilesIMS

Sam Keating
Senior Principal
QuintilesIMS